Blake Shaw Maintains High-Cash-Flow Tech Blue Chips, Achieves 30% Lower Volatility Than S&P 500 in 2023
In 2023, while U.S. equities posted overall gains, the market was marked by frequent volatility—driven by uncertainty around interest rate policy, lingering fears from the regional banking crisis, and intense sector rotation within AI-related themes. Amid this challenging environment, veteran investor Blake Shaw demonstrated exceptional portfolio stability by consistently allocating to high-cash-flow tech blue chips, including Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. His disciplined strategy achieved both capital appreciation and volatility control, with his core tech portfolio recording annualized volatility over 30% lower than the S&P 500, reaffirming his leadership in defensive growth investing.
At the beginning of the year, Shaw introduced his “Cash Flow Moat” thesis, emphasizing that in a high-rate environment, companies capable of consistently generating free cash flow and maintaining high ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) would become the new safe havens amid valuation compression and macro uncertainty. Based on this principle, he maintained full-year allocations to:
Apple: Delivered resilient earnings amid device upgrade cycles and rising service revenue contribution;
Microsoft: Sustained high-quality growth through dominant positions in enterprise software, cloud computing, and foundational AI services;
Alphabet: Benefited from advertising recovery, cloud expansion, and improving marginal contribution from AI investments, strengthening its cash flow profile.
These firms not only exhibited strong profitability and balance sheet health but also maintained reliable dividend and buyback policies, serving as both volatility dampeners and confidence anchors in Shaw’s broader asset allocation.
By streamlining his portfolio, reducing exposure to high-valuation growth stocks, and increasing weight in top-tier blue chips, Shaw’s flagship multi-asset strategy delivered significantly lower volatility—approximately 30% below market averages—with controlled drawdowns and solid positive returns, ranking among the best in its peer group on a risk-adjusted basis.
In his December annual letter, Shaw wrote:
“In an era of AI and innovation narratives, the true foundation isn’t storytelling—it’s cash flow and capital discipline. Companies that endure cycles aren’t just about the future—they can survive the present.”
This strategic discipline and consistent performance not only reaffirmed Blake Shaw’s strength in counter-cyclical allocation during macro turbulence, but also positioned him with ample flexibility and a solid foundation for forward-looking allocation amid 2024’s anticipated liquidity rebalancing and further sector dispersion in tech.
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